Contents
- Executive Summary
- Market Analysis & Demographics
- Programming & Event Demand
- Site Analysis
- Cost Estimate
- Capital Stack & Financing
- Revenue Model
- Economic Impact
- Governance Recommendation
- Stakeholder Framework
- Data Sources & Methodology
Appendices
- Comparable Venue Deep Dives
- Full 5-Year P&L with Charts
- 30-Year Debt Service Schedule
- Bond-by-Bond Appendix (136 Bonds, 18 Issuers)
- Demographic Deep Dive
- Site Comparison Matrix
- Construction Labor Analysis
- Revenue Pledge Comparison
- Governance Comparison Matrix
- Risk Factors
- Methodology & Data Lineage
Section 01
Executive Summary
Cincinnati is evaluating a new 18,000-seat, 675,000 GSF multi-purpose arena to replace the aging Heritage Bank Center (opened 1975). The proposed facility would operate without a major professional sports anchor tenant, relying on concerts, minor league hockey (Cincinnati Cyclones), NCAA events, and family entertainment.
$675-800M
Total Project Cost
70 / 30
Public / Private Split
$6.0M
Net Operating Income
$36M/yr
Dedicated Tax Revenue Needed
Critical Finding
Arena operations generate only $6M/year in NOI — covering just 18% of the estimated $33.7M annual debt service on $518M in bonds. The remaining $28M+/year must come from dedicated tax revenues (hotel tax, vehicle rental tax, admissions tax, TIF). This is consistent with every non-anchored arena in our 136-bond database: no arena without an NBA/NHL tenant self-finances from operations.
Section 02
Market Analysis & Demographics
Cincinnati MSA (7 counties)
| County | State | Population | Median HHI | Growth (4yr) |
|---|
| Hamilton | OH | 837,359 | $70,816 | +0.8% |
| Butler | OH | 399,542 | $81,194 | +2.2% |
| Warren | OH | 256,059 | $107,843 | +5.3% |
| Clermont | OH | 214,123 | $83,178 | +2.6% |
| Kenton | KY | 174,862 | $79,421 | +3.3% |
| Boone | KY | 144,135 | $94,752 | +5.6% |
| Campbell | KY | 94,008 | $77,271 | +0.9% |
| MSA Total | | 2,120,088 | $79,700 | +2.3% |
Combine Insight
Core county growth is slow (+0.8%), but suburban ring is booming (Warren +5.3%, Boone +5.6%). The arena must draw from suburban counties to hit attendance targets. Key demographic: 767,570 residents aged 18-44 (36.2% of MSA) — the primary event-going population.
Peer Market Comparison
| Market | Core County Pop | Median HHI | Arena | Bond Par |
|---|
| Cincinnati (Hamilton, OH) | 837,359 | $70,816 | Proposed 18K | — |
| Buffalo (Erie, NY) | 950,602 | $71,175 | KeyBank Center | $277M |
| Louisville (Jefferson, KY) | 793,881 | $67,849 | KFC Yum! Center | $1.47B |
| Kansas City (Jackson, MO) | 727,362 | $67,178 | T-Mobile Center | — |
| Omaha (Douglas, NE) | 601,158 | $79,081 | CHI Health Center | $402M |
| Spokane (Spokane, WA) | 555,947 | $73,513 | The Podium | $294M |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2023 + PEP 2024 via Eagle DB; EMMA bond data via Combine DB.
Hotel & Tourism Market
| Hotel Market |
|---|
| Total rooms | ~30,000 |
| Properties | ~290 |
| Occupancy | ~60-62% |
| ADR | ~$130-140 |
| Implied room revenue | ~$870M/yr |
| County lodging tax | 7.5% |
| Implied tax collections | ~$65M/yr |
| Tourism Impact (2023) |
|---|
| Visitor spending (Hamilton Co.) | $4.4B |
| Visitor spending (region) | $6.5B |
| Annual visitors | 25.9M |
| Tourism jobs | 67,000 |
| Tax revenue (region) | $352M |
| CVG passengers (2024) | 9.2M |
Source: HVS Market Study 2022, Visit Cincy / Tourism Economics 2023, Hamilton County.
Section 03
Programming & Event Demand
Projected 5-Year Attendance Ramp
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Total Events | 116 | 119 | 122 | 125 | 128 |
| Total Attendance | 887,000 | 909,940 | 932,879 | 955,819 | 978,759 |
| Cyclones (hockey) | 280,000 | 287,241 | 294,483 | 301,724 | 308,966 |
| Non-Cyclones | 607,000 | 622,698 | 638,397 | 654,095 | 669,793 |
Event Mix vs. Peer Arenas
| Category | Heritage Bank (current) | New Arena (projected) | Peer Avg |
|---|
| Music Concerts | 18 | 24 | 24 |
| Minor League Hockey | 40 | 40 | n/a |
| Family Entertainment | 25 | 28 | 22 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| Comedy | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Other Sports | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Total | 90 | 116 | 86 |
Operating Profit by Arena Type
$5-6M
New Cincinnati Arena
(no anchor tenant)
$10-12M
Tier 1 Non-NBA/NHL
(e.g. Kansas City)
$30-40M
NBA/NHL Arena
(with anchor tenant)
Combine Insight
Cincinnati's projected NOI is half what a Tier 1 non-anchored arena generates because of intense regional competition: Columbus (x2), Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Louisville, and Lexington — all within 4 hours. Kansas City's T-Mobile Center has no competition except St. Louis. Major acts that skipped Cincinnati for peer cities in 2022-23: blink-182, Elton John, Jonas Brothers, P!NK, Stevie Nicks.
Section 04
Site Analysis
| Site | Acres | Acquisition | Construction Premium | Recommended? |
|---|
| West Downtown | 9.62 | Low (state land transfer) | +$10M | Yes |
| Towne Center Garage | 6.37 | Medium (relocate WCET) | +$25M | Yes |
| Casino North | 5.16 | Low (Hard Rock-owned) | +$5M | No |
| Heritage Bank Center | 4.17 | n/a | +$70M | No |
West Downtown is the preferred site: largest footprint (9.62 ac), closest to convention center (0.1 mi) and Fountain Square (0.4 mi), lowest premium, and strongest catalyst potential. Towne Center Garage is the alternative, with better transit access but a $25M garage demolition premium.
Section 05
Cost Estimate
Construction Cost Baseline — Arena Comps
| Arena | City | Seats | GSF | Adjusted Cost | $/GSF |
|---|
| T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas | 18,000 | 673,000 | $581M | $863 |
| Golden 1 Center | Sacramento | 17,608 | 742,000 | $618M | $833 |
| Confidential 1 | — | 17,278 | 785,300 | $736M | $938 |
| Confidential 2 | — | 18,826 | 871,000 | $881M | $1,012 |
| T-Mobile Center | Kansas City | 18,972 | 640,000 | $543M | $848 |
| New Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 18,000 | 675,000 | $550-650M | $815-963 |
Costs adjusted to 2024 dollars, Cincinnati location. Source: Machete Group analysis.
Ohio Construction Cost Factors
| Factor | Value |
|---|
| Cost index vs. national | 0.95x (5% below) |
| Sales tax on materials | 5.75% |
| Prevailing wage | Required |
| Union premium | 10-20% |
| Seismic zone | Low |
| Construction Labor (Cincy MSA) | Workers | Avg Wage |
|---|
| All Construction | 28,640 | $57,910 |
| Electricians | 4,320 | $67,140 |
| Carpenters | 3,420 | $61,570 |
| Plumbers/Fitters | 2,640 | $71,280 |
Source: Eagle DB (BLS OEWS, location_cost_adjustments, PPI).
Section 06
Capital Stack & Financing
Proposed Sources
| Source | Amount | % of Total | Mechanism |
|---|
| Public financing | $517,500,000 | 70% | Revenue bonds (arena + dedicated taxes) |
| Private investment | $220,000,000 | 30% | GP/LP equity, donations |
| Total | $737,500,000 | 100% | |
0.18x
Arena-only debt service coverage ratio. $6M NOI vs. $33.7M annual debt service.
Cincinnati needs ~$36M/year in dedicated tax revenue to achieve 1.25x investment-grade coverage.
Revenue Pledge Benchmarks from EMMA Bond Database
| Issuer | Revenue Pledge | Annual Collections | Bond Par |
|---|
| Harris County-Houston | 2% hotel + 5% vehicle rental + Astros payments | $71M (2024) | $849M |
| Las Vegas CVVA | Room tax | $400M+ | $1.94B |
| Spokane PFD | Hotel/motel + sales/use tax | ~$25M | $294M |
| Miami-Dade | Professional sports franchise facilities tax | ~$15M | $329M |
| Denver Metro | 0.1% regional sales tax (6 counties) | Sunset (bonds retired) | $260M |
Source: EMMA Official Statements read and extracted by Combine Engine (136 bonds, 18 issuers, $11.7B par).
Section 07
Revenue Model
5-Year Projected P&L (Conceptual)
| Line Item | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Rent | $5,295,000 | $5,568,879 | $5,908,024 |
| Concessions | $5,029,440 | $5,289,583 | $5,611,719 |
| Facility Fee | $1,774,000 | $1,865,759 | $1,979,383 |
| Event Suites | $522,667 | $549,701 | $583,178 |
| Naming Rights | $1,275,000 | $1,275,000 | $1,275,000 |
| Sponsorship | $2,125,000 | $2,254,413 | $2,391,706 |
| Annual Suites | $1,080,000 | $1,145,772 | $1,215,550 |
| Total Revenue | $17,101,107 | $17,949,107 | $18,964,560 |
| Event Expenses | ($3,730,000) | ($3,922,931) | ($4,115,862) |
| Wages & Benefits | ($4,915,313) | ($5,214,655) | ($5,532,228) |
| Other Indirect | ($2,500,000) | ($2,626,563) | ($2,759,532) |
| Net Operating Income | $5,955,794 | $6,184,958 | $6,556,938 |
Source: Machete Group feasibility study, p.25. "Figures intended to be conceptual in nature and not prescriptive/definitive."
Section 08
Economic Impact
$1.29B
Construction Output
(3 years)
$31.2M
Construction Tax Revenue
$22.6M
Annual Operations Output
Data Quality Note
Multiplier model not specified in source study. Combine cross-checked against 3 studies using RIMS II or IMPLAN: construction output multiplier appears ~10% aggressive (1.84x vs. 1.5-1.7x norm), but job counts are conservative. County-specific RIMS II multipliers available from BEA for $275/region for production-grade analysis.
Section 09
Governance Recommendation
Based on analysis of 8 sports authority structures from EMMA Official Statements (18 issuers, $11.7B par), Combine recommends a Hamilton County-Cincinnati Public Facilities Authority modeled as a hybrid of Houston (dual jurisdiction), Spokane (multi-venue portfolio), and Louisville (private operator).
Proposed Board (11 Members)
| Seats | Appointed By | Rationale |
|---|
| 4 | Hamilton County Commissioners | Primary taxing jurisdiction, likely bond issuer |
| 3 | City of Cincinnati Mayor + Council | Land use, zoning, permitting, site location |
| 2 | Governor of Ohio | State oversight, political insulation |
| 1 | University of Cincinnati | Anchor tenant (basketball, 50+ events/yr) |
| 1 | Convention Facilities Authority | Convention center integration (ex officio) |
Revenue Stack Targeting $36M/Year
| Source | Est. Annual | Benchmark |
|---|
| Hotel/motel tax increment (1-2%) | $12-18M | Harris County, Spokane, Pittsburgh |
| Vehicle rental tax (3-5%) | $4-6M | Harris County, Detroit |
| Admissions tax (5%) | $3-5M | Denver Metro |
| Arena NOI | $5-7M | Machete + Louisville/KC comps |
| Naming rights | $3-5M | Arizona, Louisville comps |
| Total | $27-41M | Target: $36M |
Operator: ASM Global or OVG (private operation, public ownership). OVG's CFG Bank Arena model — operator invests renovation capital for long-term rights — could reduce public capital.
Section 10
Stakeholder Framework
Twelve stakeholder categories must be consulted. For each, Combine provides comparable market findings and market-specific questions.
| # | Stakeholder | Key Question for Cincinnati |
|---|
| 1 | Touring Promoters | Will a new arena capture 6+ major acts/yr currently skipping Cincinnati? |
| 2 | Cyclones (ECHL) | Will they sign a 15+ year lease? What rent/revenue split? |
| 3 | NCAA Officials | Can 18K seats host March Madness regionals or Frozen Four? |
| 4 | Elected Officials | Political appetite for sin tax, rideshare fee, or TIF? |
| 5 | Neighborhoods | Do West End/Pendleton residents support preferred sites? |
| 6 | Visit Cincy (CVB) | Incremental room nights or cannibalize convention business? |
| 7 | Corporate Sponsors | Realistic naming rights value without anchor tenant? |
| 8 | Private Investors | Is 70/30 split realistic? Who are the equity partners? |
| 9 | Arena Operators | ASM Global vs. OVG for competitive Midwest routing market? |
| 10 | Construction Industry | 28,640 workers sufficient for $700M project, or import trades? |
| 11 | Heritage Bank Center | Demolish, repurpose, or operate during transition? |
| 12 | NBA/NHL Expansion | Realistic path to anchor tenant? Build "tenant-ready"? |
Section 11
Data Sources & Methodology
Report Coverage: 90%
| Data Layer | Source | Cost |
|---|
| EMMA bond data (136 bonds, $11.7B) | MSRB Official Statements | $0 (public) |
| Feasibility study data (7 studies) | Public feasibility reports | $0 (public) |
| Demographics (all US counties) | Census ACS/PEP via Eagle DB | $0 (public) |
| Construction labor & wages | BLS OEWS via Eagle DB | $0 (public) |
| Construction cost indices | Eagle location_cost_adjustments + PPI | $0 (public) |
| Hotel & tourism data | HVS, Visit Cincy, Hamilton County | $0 (public) |
| Economic multipliers | Proxy from loaded RIMS II/IMPLAN studies | $0 (proxy) |
| Governance structures | EMMA OS document analysis (18 issuers) | $0 (public) |
Production Upgrades Available
County-specific RIMS II multipliers: $275/region from BEA. STR hotel data: $2-5K/yr. Formal stakeholder interviews: $50-150K. Total for production-grade report: ~$55-155K vs. $200-500K from CAA ICON or CSL.
Appendices
Detailed Supporting Analysis
The following appendices provide the full data behind each section of this report. All data is auto-generated from the Combine Engine database (Neon Postgres, 12 sports tables).
Appendix A
Comparable Venue Deep Dives
Eight comparable arenas from the Combine database, selected for relevance to Cincinnati's proposed non-anchored arena concept. Each card includes key metrics and a lesson for Cincinnati.
T-Mobile Center — Kansas City, MO
18,972 seats
Opened 2007
$276M nominal ($543M adj.)
81% public / 19% private
Operator: ASM Global
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | Big 12 Tournament (no NBA/NHL) |
| Annual events | 96 |
| Bonds outstanding | N/A (city GO bonds, not sports authority) |
Lesson: Best-case scenario for a non-anchored arena. KC benefits from minimal regional competition (only St. Louis) and the Big 12 Conference tournament as a reliable annual anchor. Cincinnati faces 7 competing arenas within 4 hours — a fundamentally harder booking environment.
CHI Health Center — Omaha, NE
18,320 seats
Opened 2003
$291M nominal
74% public / 26% private
Operator: MECA
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | Creighton Bluejays (NCAA) + CWS events |
| Annual events | 62 |
| Bond par outstanding | $402M (10 series, City of Omaha) |
| Revenue pledge | Convention hotel revenues, property tax, TIF |
Lesson: Omaha paired the arena with a convention center hotel to create a self-reinforcing revenue ecosystem. MECA (quasi-public operator) manages both. Cincinnati should evaluate integrating convention center operations with the arena authority for similar synergies.
KFC Yum! Center — Louisville, KY
22,000 seats
Opened 2010
100% public
Operator: ASM Global
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | Louisville Cardinals (NCAA) |
| Annual events | 85 |
| Bond par outstanding | $1.47B (15 series via KY EDFA) |
| Revenue pledge | TIF revenues + Metro Louisville guarantee ($10.8M/yr) + arena revenues |
Lesson: Louisville demonstrates that a major university tenant (UofL) can drive sufficient programming. UC Bearcats could play a similar role in Cincinnati. However, Louisville's $10.8M/yr government guarantee shows that even with a strong tenant, public subsidy is required.
CFG Bank Arena — Baltimore, MD
14,000 seats
Opened 1962 (renovated 2023)
$250M renovation (100% private)
Operator: OVG
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | None (concert/event venue) |
| Annual events | 95 |
| Financing model | OVG invested $250M+ for long-term operating rights |
Lesson: OVG's model — private capital for long-term rights — is the most relevant for reducing Cincinnati's public burden. If OVG invested $200-250M, Cincinnati's public share drops from 70% to ~40%. Trade-off: OVG controls booking and revenue for 30+ years.
Rupp Arena — Lexington, KY
23,000 seats
Opened 1976
81% public / 19% private
Operator: Lexington Center Corp
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | UK Wildcats (NCAA basketball) |
| Annual events | 76 |
| Bond par outstanding | N/A (county-backed) |
Lesson: Rupp is a direct competitor for Cincinnati — UK Wildcats draw fans from across the region. Rupp's 23K capacity dwarfs Cincinnati's proposed 18K. Cincinnati must differentiate on modern amenities and concert-friendly configuration, not capacity.
Golden 1 Center — Sacramento, CA
17,608 seats
Opened 2016
$466M nominal ($618M adj.)
48% public / 52% private
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | Sacramento Kings (NBA) |
| Financing model | Kings ownership invested majority; city contributed parking/land |
Lesson: Golden 1 shows the upside of having an NBA tenant: 52% private funding. Without an NBA/NHL team, Cincinnati cannot replicate this split. The 70/30 public-heavy structure is the realistic baseline for a non-anchored arena.
T-Mobile Arena — Las Vegas, NV
18,000 seats
Opened 2016
$375M nominal ($581M adj.)
100% private
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | Vegas Golden Knights (NHL) |
| Financing | MGM + AEG joint venture, fully private |
| LVCVA bond par | $1.94B (convention center, not arena) |
Lesson: Vegas is the exception that proves the rule — the only 100% privately financed major arena, made possible by Las Vegas's unique tourism economics and MGM's adjacent casino interest. Not replicable in Cincinnati.
Heritage Bank Center — Cincinnati, OH (existing)
17,750 seats
Opened 1975
Owner: Nederlander
Operator: AEG
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Primary tenant | Cincinnati Cyclones (ECHL) |
| Annual events | 90 |
| Ownership | Fully private (unique among comps) |
Lesson: The only fully private arena in the comp set. Private ownership means no public capital was ever invested, but it also means no public control over programming, community benefit requirements, or tenant selection. The new arena reverses this model.
Appendix B
Full 5-Year P&L
| Line Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|
| Revenue |
| Rent | $5,295,000 | $5,431,940 | $5,568,879 | $5,735,946 | $5,908,024 |
| Concessions | $5,029,440 | $5,159,512 | $5,289,583 | $5,448,271 | $5,611,719 |
| Facility Fee | $1,774,000 | $1,819,879 | $1,865,759 | $1,921,731 | $1,979,383 |
| Event Suites | $522,667 | $536,184 | $549,701 | $566,192 | $583,178 |
| Naming Rights | $1,275,000 | $1,275,000 | $1,275,000 | $1,275,000 | $1,275,000 |
| Sponsorship | $2,125,000 | $2,188,750 | $2,254,413 | $2,322,045 | $2,391,706 |
| Annual Suites | $1,080,000 | $1,112,400 | $1,145,772 | $1,180,145 | $1,215,550 |
| Total Revenue | $17,101,107 | $17,523,665 | $17,949,107 | $18,449,330 | $18,964,560 |
| Expenses |
| Event Expenses | ($3,730,000) | ($3,826,466) | ($3,922,931) | ($4,019,397) | ($4,115,862) |
| Wages & Benefits | ($4,915,313) | ($5,062,772) | ($5,214,655) | ($5,371,095) | ($5,532,228) |
| Other Indirect | ($2,500,000) | ($2,562,500) | ($2,626,563) | ($2,692,227) | ($2,759,532) |
| Total Expenses | ($11,145,313) | ($11,451,738) | ($11,764,149) | ($12,082,719) | ($12,407,622) |
| Net Operating Income |
| NOI | $5,955,794 | $6,071,927 | $6,184,958 | $6,366,612 | $6,556,938 |
| Annual Debt Service | ($33,697,000) | ($33,697,000) | ($33,697,000) | ($33,697,000) | ($33,697,000) |
| NOI-Only DSCR | 0.18x | 0.18x | 0.18x | 0.19x | 0.19x |
| Tax Revenue Gap | $27,741,206 | $27,625,073 | $27,512,042 | $27,330,388 | $27,140,062 |
Revenue & NOI Trend
Combine Insight
Revenue grows at 2.6% CAGR (driven by concession escalation + sponsorship growth). Expenses grow at 2.7% CAGR. NOI grows at 2.4% CAGR. The annual tax revenue gap narrows by only $600K over 5 years — confirming that an operations-only play never works. The $27M+ annual gap is structural, not transitional.
Appendix C
30-Year Debt Service Schedule
Level annual debt service on $518M par at 5.00% for 30 years. Annual payment: $33,697,000. Total cost of capital: $1.011B (principal $518M + interest $493M).
| Year | Beginning Balance | Interest (5%) | Principal | Total Payment | Ending Balance |
|---|
| 1 | $518,000,000 | $25,900,000 | $7,797,000 | $33,697,000 | $510,203,000 |
| 2 | $510,203,000 | $25,510,150 | $8,186,850 | $33,697,000 | $502,016,150 |
| 3 | $502,016,150 | $25,100,808 | $8,596,192 | $33,697,000 | $493,419,957 |
| 4 | $493,419,957 | $24,670,998 | $9,026,002 | $33,697,000 | $484,393,955 |
| 5 | $484,393,955 | $24,219,698 | $9,477,302 | $33,697,000 | $474,916,653 |
| 10 | $430,271,000 | $21,513,550 | $12,183,450 | $33,697,000 | $418,087,550 |
| 15 | $361,348,000 | $18,067,400 | $15,629,600 | $33,697,000 | $345,718,400 |
| 20 | $273,182,000 | $13,659,100 | $20,037,900 | $33,697,000 | $253,144,100 |
| 25 | $160,247,000 | $8,012,350 | $25,684,650 | $33,697,000 | $134,562,350 |
| 30 | $32,093,000 | $1,604,650 | $32,093,000 | $33,697,650 | $0 |
$1.011B
Total Debt Cost
(P&I over 30 years)
$493M
Total Interest Paid
1.95x
Total Cost / Par Ratio
Combine Insight
At 5%, Cincinnati pays $493M in interest — nearly matching the $518M principal. Every 50bps reduction in rate saves ~$44M over the life of the bonds. If Cincinnati can achieve a 4.5% rate (possible with strong revenue pledges and credit enhancement), total cost drops to ~$960M, saving $51M. Investment-grade credit rating is essential.
Appendix D
Bond-by-Bond Appendix
136 bonds across 18 issuers, totaling $11.7B par. Sorted by total par outstanding.
| Issuer | Series Count | Total Par | Rate Range |
|---|
| Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority | 25 | $1,940M | 2.00%-6.75% |
| Illinois Sports Facilities Authority | 13 | $1,935M | 5.00%-9.00% |
| Kentucky EDFA (Louisville Arena) | 15 | $1,471M | 2.97%-8.25% |
| Brooklyn Arena LDC (Barclays Center) | 5 | $987M | 3.00%-5.00% |
| Maryland Stadium Authority | 5 | $954M | 1.00%-6.10% |
| Harris County-Houston Sports Authority | 9 | $849M | 4.00%-5.00% |
| Arizona Sports & Tourism Authority | 6 | $546M | 2.25%-5.38% |
| Georgia World Congress Center Authority | 2 | $440M | 2.38%-5.00% |
| Tampa Sports Authority | 8 | $418M | 1.48%-8.02% |
| City of Omaha Convention Hotel Corp | 10 | $402M | 3.91%-7.13% |
| Miami-Dade County | 5 | $329M | 2.80%-4.27% |
| Spokane Public Facilities District | 5 | $293M | 5.00%-5.00% |
| Erie County Convention Center Authority | 11 | $277M | 0.65%-5.50% |
| Wisconsin Center District | 2 | $273M | 5.00%-5.00% |
| Metropolitan Football Stadium District (CO) | 3 | $260M | N/A |
| Pittsburgh Sports & Exhibition Authority | 3 | $167M | 4.00%-5.00% |
| Detroit/Wayne County Stadium Authority | 3 | $144M | 3.00%-5.00% |
| Nashville Sports Authority | 6 | $17M | 4.00%-5.00% |
| TOTAL | 136 | $11,702M | 0.65%-9.00% |
Coupon Rate Distribution
| Rate Band | Count | % of Total | Era |
|---|
| 0-3% | 12 | 9% | 2020-2021 (COVID-era ultra-low rates) |
| 3-4% | 18 | 13% | 2015-2019 low-rate era |
| 4-5% | 62 | 46% | Normal municipal rate band (most common) |
| 5-6% | 31 | 23% | 2022-2026 + older issuances |
| 6%+ | 13 | 9% | Pre-2000 + ISFA (state credit risk premium) |
Combine Insight
The 4-5% band is where Cincinnati will likely issue. Recent comparable: Spokane PFD 2022 at 5.00%, Erie County 2023 at 4.25-5.25%. Our 5% assumption is conservative but realistic for a new-issue, unrated or BBB-category sports authority.
Appendix E
Demographic Deep Dive
Population by Age Cohort (Cincinnati MSA, 7 counties)
| County | Under 18 | 18-44 | 45-64 | 65+ | Total |
|---|
| Hamilton, OH | 189,740 | 315,460 | 187,170 | 144,989 | 837,359 |
| Butler, OH | 91,022 | 147,059 | 95,117 | 66,344 | 399,542 |
| Warren, OH | 59,624 | 85,255 | 68,322 | 42,858 | 256,059 |
| Clermont, OH | 46,047 | 71,801 | 54,529 | 41,746 | 214,123 |
| Kenton, KY | 39,728 | 63,902 | 42,212 | 29,020 | 174,862 |
| Boone, KY | 35,963 | 49,554 | 36,120 | 22,498 | 144,135 |
| Campbell, KY | 18,875 | 34,539 | 22,847 | 17,747 | 94,008 |
| MSA Total | 480,999 | 767,570 | 506,317 | 365,202 | 2,120,088 |
| % of Total | 22.7% | 36.2% | 23.9% | 17.2% | 100% |
Population by County (relative scale)
Median Household Income by County
Combine Insight
Hamilton County (arena location) has the lowest median HHI ($70,816) in the MSA. The wealthiest counties (Warren $107K, Boone $95K) are 30-45 minutes from downtown. Premium seating and luxury suite pricing must be calibrated to the suburban buyer, not the urban core. Ticket pricing strategy should target the 767,570 residents aged 18-44 (36.2% of MSA) with a secondary play to the 506,317 aged 45-64 (corporate suite buyers).
Appendix F
Site Comparison Matrix
| Criterion | West Downtown | Towne Center Garage | Casino North | Heritage Bank Center |
|---|
| Acreage | 9.62 (largest) | 6.37 | 5.16 | 4.17 (smallest) |
| Acquisition Difficulty | Low (state land) | Medium (WCET relocation) | Low (Hard Rock) | N/A |
| Construction Premium | +$10M | +$25M | +$5M | +$70M |
| Convention Center Proximity | 0.1 mi | 0.7 mi | 1.2 mi | 0.5 mi |
| Fountain Square Proximity | 0.4 mi | 0.8 mi | 1.5 mi | 0.3 mi |
| Transit Access | Good | Best (streetcar) | Limited | Good |
| Catalyst Potential | Highest | High | Low (isolated) | Low (infill) |
| Recommendation | YES (preferred) | YES (alternative) | NO | NO |
Combine Insight
West Downtown wins on every dimension except transit (Towne Center has streetcar access) and Fountain Square proximity (Heritage Bank is closer but too small). The $60M premium difference between West Downtown (+$10M) and Heritage Bank (+$70M) alone disqualifies the existing site. Casino North's isolation from the urban core makes it unsuitable despite the lowest premium.
Appendix G
Construction Labor Analysis
Cincinnati MSA construction workforce: 28,640 workers across all trades. Location quotient 1.03 (at national average). Data from BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) via Eagle DB.
| Occupation | Employment | Avg Wage | Median Wage | Hourly Rate | Location Quotient |
|---|
| All Construction & Extraction | 28,640 | $57,910 | $51,210 | $27.84 | 1.03 |
| Construction Laborers | 5,980 | $46,360 | $42,430 | $22.29 | 0.97 |
| Electricians | 4,320 | $67,140 | $61,110 | $32.28 | 1.47 |
| Carpenters | 3,420 | $61,570 | $58,120 | $29.60 | 1.04 |
| Plumbers/Pipefitters/Steamfitters | 2,640 | $71,280 | $61,690 | $34.27 | 1.14 |
| Operating Engineers | 2,280 | $66,060 | $57,660 | $31.76 | 1.61 |
| Supervisors (Construction) | 2,120 | $85,090 | $77,110 | $40.91 | 1.04 |
| Painters | 1,680 | $50,480 | $47,720 | $24.27 | 1.05 |
| Cement Masons/Concrete Finishers | 1,180 | $57,990 | $53,560 | $27.88 | 1.14 |
| Sheet Metal Workers | 1,180 | $67,180 | $59,630 | $32.30 | 1.53 |
| Roofers | 1,020 | $51,650 | $50,040 | $24.83 | 1.19 |
| Drywall/Ceiling Tile Installers | 680 | $61,190 | $56,970 | $29.42 | 1.10 |
| Inspectors | 520 | $75,300 | $70,720 | $36.20 | 0.85 |
| Structural Iron/Steel Workers | 480 | $73,260 | $61,440 | $35.22 | 1.17 |
| Glaziers | 320 | $57,660 | $54,330 | $27.72 | 0.98 |
Workforce Adequacy Assessment
Combine Insight
An 18,000-seat arena typically requires 1,500-2,500 workers at peak construction. Cincinnati's 28,640 construction workers can absorb this if no competing mega-projects overlap. Key risks:
- Electricians (LQ 1.47): Strong local surplus vs. national average. No import needed.
- Sheet Metal (LQ 1.53): Strong local surplus. Arena HVAC/ductwork demand met locally.
- Operating Engineers (LQ 1.61): Strongest trade. Heavy equipment operators abundant.
- Structural Iron (480 workers, LQ 1.17): Tight. Arena steel erection may require Columbus/Indianapolis crews.
- Glaziers (320 workers, LQ 0.98): Tightest trade. Curtainwall installation likely needs imported specialists.
- Inspectors (LQ 0.85): Below national average. Third-party inspection firms may be needed.
Prevailing wage impact: Ohio requires prevailing wages on public projects. Union premium estimated at 10-20% over open-shop rates. Electricians ($32.28/hr) and plumbers ($34.27/hr) are the most expensive trades but also the most available.
Appendix H
Revenue Pledge Comparison
How all 18 EMMA sports issuers back their bonds. Revenue pledges extracted directly from Official Statements.
| Issuer | Par | Primary Revenue Pledge |
|---|
| Las Vegas CVVA | $1.94B | Room tax + gaming fees + SB1 restricted revenues |
| Illinois Sports Facilities Auth. | $1.94B | State Hotel Tax + City subsidy + State appropriation |
| KY EDFA (Louisville Arena) | $1.47B | TIF + Metro Louisville guarantee ($10.8M/yr) + arena revenues + naming rights |
| Brooklyn Arena LDC | $987M | Payments in lieu of taxes (PILOTs) from ArenaCo |
| Maryland Stadium Auth. | $954M | State capital lease payments + lottery revenues |
| Harris County-Houston | $849M | 2% Hotel Tax + 5% Vehicle Rental Tax + Astros payments |
| Arizona Sports & Tourism | $546M | Tourism tax (hotel bed tax + car rental surcharge) + facility income tax |
| Georgia GWCC Auth. | $440M | Convention center hotel revenues (975-room Signia by Hilton) |
| Tampa Sports Auth. | $418M | Tourist Development Tax + parking + State sales tax distributions |
| Omaha Convention Hotel Corp | $402M | Hotel operating revenues + property tax levy + TIF |
| Miami-Dade County | $329M | Professional Sports Franchise Facilities Tax + Tourist Development Tax |
| Spokane PFD | $293M | Hotel/Motel Tax (2%) + Sales/Use Tax (0.1%) + State credit |
| Erie County CCA | $277M | Hotel revenues + County GO guarantee + state IFIP grants |
| Wisconsin Center District | $273M | State legislature annual appropriation grants |
| Denver Metro Stadium District | $260M | 0.1% sales/use tax (6-county metro) + admissions tax + naming rights |
| Pittsburgh SEA | $167M | Allegheny County Hotel Excise Tax (5% + 2%) |
| Detroit/Wayne County | $144M | Motor vehicle rental tax + hotel tax + Wayne County limited tax GO |
| Nashville Sports Auth. | $17M | PILOTs + parking + rent + Metro non-tax revenues |
Revenue Pledge Frequency
| Revenue Type | Issuers Using It | Relevance to Cincinnati |
|---|
| Hotel/motel tax | 7 (most common) | High — Hamilton County collects ~$65M/yr in lodging tax. A 1-2% increment is feasible. |
| Vehicle rental tax | 3 | High — CVG airport drives rental volume. Houston and Detroit precedents. |
| Sales/use tax | 3 | Medium — Requires voter approval and potentially state enabling legislation. |
| PILOT payments | 2 | Medium — Applicable if private operator model (OVG/CFG Bank approach). |
| State appropriation | 3 | Low — Ohio unlikely to appropriate directly for a Cincinnati arena. |
| Admissions tax | 1 | Medium — Correlates directly with programming success. |
| TIF revenue | 2 | Medium — Depends on development district around arena site. |
Appendix I
Governance Comparison Matrix
Eight authority structures analyzed from EMMA Official Statements. Each row represents a real governance model backing real bonds.
| Authority | Type | Board | Operator Model | Facilities |
|---|
| Harris County-Houston | Sports authority | 13 (6 city + 6 county + 1 joint) | Teams operate own venues | NRG Stadium, Minute Maid, Toyota Center |
| Denver Metro Stadium District | Special district | 9 (6 counties + 2 governor + 1 ex officio) | Broncos operate under lease | Empower Field at Mile High |
| Miami-Dade County | Direct county | 13 commissioners (elected) | Marlins operate under lease | LoanDepot Park |
| Georgia GWCC Authority | State instrumentality | Governor-appointed | GWCC in-house; AMB (Blank) for Mercedes-Benz | GWCC, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, State Farm Arena |
| Brooklyn Arena LDC | Conduit LDC | NYC-controlled | ArenaCo (private) operates | Barclays Center |
| Nashville Sports Auth. | Metro government entity | Metro Nashville-appointed | Teams operate under lease | Nissan Stadium, Bridgestone Arena |
| Wisconsin Center District | Special district | State + local appointments | In-house management | WI Center, Panther Arena, Miller Theatre |
| Spokane PFD | Voter-created PFD | County + City appointed | In-house + contracted | Convention Center, Arena, The Podium |
Key Structural Lessons
| Feature | Best Model | Cincinnati Application |
|---|
| Dual jurisdiction balance | Harris County-Houston | 4 County + 3 City appointments prevents either side dominating |
| Multi-venue portfolio | Spokane PFD | Combine arena with convention center under single authority |
| Private operator expertise | Louisville (ASM Global) | Contract ASM Global or OVG for booking networks & sponsorship |
| State-level insulation | Denver (Governor appointees) | 2 Governor appointees add political independence |
| Voter-approved dedicated tax | Spokane, Denver | Referendum gives democratic legitimacy + reduces legal challenge risk |
| Campus synergy | Georgia GWCC | Convention center + arena + hotel creates diversified revenue |
Cautionary Model
Miami-Dade (direct county issuance, no buffer authority) became politically toxic after the Marlins deal. Cincinnati must create a separate authority to insulate facility operations from election-cycle politics.
Appendix J
Risk Factors
HIGH
No Anchor Tenant
Without an NBA or NHL team, the arena relies entirely on concerts, minor league hockey, and events. Every non-anchored arena in the 136-bond database requires public subsidy. No exceptions found.
HIGH
Regional Competition
Seven competing arenas within 4 hours: Columbus (Nationwide Arena + Schottenstein), Cleveland (Rocket Mortgage), Pittsburgh (PPG Paints), Indianapolis (Gainbridge), Louisville (Yum! Center), Lexington (Rupp). Major touring acts already have routing options that bypass Cincinnati.
HIGH
Tax Revenue Dependency ($27M+ annual gap)
Arena NOI covers only 18% of debt service. The remaining $27M+/year must come from dedicated taxes. If hotel occupancy drops (recession, pandemic), tax collections decline while debt service remains fixed. Harris County-Houston experienced a 40% drop in hotel tax during COVID.
MEDIUM
Political Risk — Voter Approval
Dedicated taxes likely require referendum. Ohio voters rejected a 2023 Cuyahoga County proposal for stadium tax renewal. Cincinnati's 2024 local election dynamics add uncertainty. Hamilton County's prior stadium bond experience (PBS/GABP) left political scars.
MEDIUM
Construction Cost Escalation
PPI shows 25% construction cost escalation 2020-2024. If costs continue rising at 5-7%/year through the 3-year construction period, the $675-800M estimate could increase by $100-150M. Prevailing wage + union premium add 10-20%.
MEDIUM
Interest Rate Risk
Our model assumes 5%. Every 50bps increase adds ~$2.5M/year to debt service, widening the tax revenue gap. If rates are 5.5% at issuance, annual debt service rises to ~$35.5M and the required tax revenue jumps to ~$29M.
MEDIUM
State Enabling Legislation
Creating a new public facilities authority requires Ohio General Assembly action. Ohio's current statute (ORC 351) covers convention facility authorities but does not specifically enable arena authorities with dedicated taxing power. Legislative timeline: 6-18 months minimum.
LOW
Construction Workforce Capacity
28,640 construction workers in the MSA with location quotients at or above 1.0 for most trades. Peak demand (2,000-2,500 workers) represents 7-9% of the local construction workforce. Manageable unless overlapping with another $500M+ project.
LOW
Site Availability
West Downtown (preferred site) is state-owned land requiring transfer. Acquisition risk is low — the land is vacant/underused and state has indicated willingness to transfer for economic development. No eminent domain needed.
Appendix K
Methodology & Data Lineage
Data Pipeline
| Data Source | Ingestion Method | Records | Vintage | Cost |
|---|
| EMMA (MSRB) | SearchAhead API + OS PDF extraction via Read tool | 136 bonds, 18 issuers | 1991-2026 | $0 |
| Feasibility Studies | PDF download + Read tool extraction | 7 studies, 27 comps | 2019-2025 | $0 |
| U.S. Census ACS | Census API via Eagle DB | 7 counties (MSA) | ACS 2023 | $0 |
| U.S. Census PEP | Census API via Eagle DB | 7 counties (MSA) | PEP 2024 | $0 |
| BLS OEWS | BLS API via Eagle DB | 16 construction occupations | May 2023 | $0 |
| BLS PPI | BLS API via Eagle DB | Construction escalation indices | 2020-2024 | $0 |
| Location Cost Adjustments | Eagle DB (RS Means proxy) | State-level indices | 2024 | $0 |
| HVS Market Studies | Public PDF + Read tool extraction | Hotel market data | 2022 | $0 |
| Visit Cincy / Tourism Economics | Public reports | Visitor spending, room nights | 2023 | $0 |
| Hamilton County Public Records | County website | Tax rates, collections | 2024 | $0 |
Database Architecture
| Table | Rows | What It Contains |
|---|
| sports_bonds | 136 | Full bond detail: issuer, series, par, rate, maturity, pledge, ratings, underwriter |
| sports_venues | 39 | Arenas, stadiums, indoor sports centers with capacity, cost, operator |
| sports_revenue_projections | 102 | Year-by-year P&L (Cincinnati complete years 1-5) |
| sports_financing_sources | 33 | Capital stacks by venue |
| sports_study_comps | 27 | Study-to-venue comparable references |
| sports_economic_impact | 21 | Construction + operations economic impact (RIMS II / IMPLAN) |
| sports_programming | 17 | Event categories and attendance projections |
| sports_consultants | 15 | CAA ICON, CSL, Victus, SFA, Machete, BerryDunn, etc. |
| sports_tax_assumptions | 13 | Tax rates by jurisdiction |
| sports_studies | 7 | Full feasibility studies with PDF URLs |
| sports_site_analysis | 4 | Cincinnati sites with premiums and difficulty |
| sports_rental_rates | 16 | Facility rental benchmarks |
Cross-Pollination from Eagle Healthcare DB
| Eagle Table | Feeds | Sports Use |
|---|
| census_county_demographics | Market analysis | MSA population, income, age cohorts |
| census_county_age_detail | Demand modeling | 5-year age bands for event-going population |
| location_cost_adjustments | Cost estimate | State cost index, prevailing wage, union premium |
| bls_oews_employment | Cost estimate + labor analysis | Construction labor pool + wage rates by trade |
| ppi_annual | Cost estimate | Construction escalation 2020-2026 |
Known Limitations
- Economic multipliers: Proxy from 3 loaded studies (RIMS II / IMPLAN). County-specific multipliers available from BEA for $275/region.
- Hotel data: HVS 2022 vintage — current STR data ($2-5K/yr) would sharpen occupancy/ADR estimates.
- Stakeholder input: No formal interviews conducted. Template provided; $50-150K for production-grade stakeholder engagement.
- Concert routing data: Inferred from peer comparisons, not from promoter interviews (Live Nation, AEG).
- Naming rights valuation: Proxy from Arizona ($3.7M/yr) and Louisville comps. Formal valuation requires RFP process.
- EMMA coverage: 18 of ~30+ sports issuers. Remaining issuers had no OS documents on EMMA or bonds were fully retired.
Total Data Spend: $0
This entire report was generated from publicly available data sources at zero marginal cost. Production-grade upgrades (RIMS II + STR + stakeholder interviews) estimated at $55-155K — compared to $200-500K for a traditional consultant report from CAA ICON, CSL, or Victus Advisors.